MASI
Masimo Corporation
$179.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 245.6% above fair value
You pay
$179.95
Bear
$42.51
Fair
$52.07
Bull
$60.50
Bear
$42.51
-76.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$52.07
-71.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$60.50
-66.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
50.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.2%
vs 5.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$176.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $52.07 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $176.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions