MARA
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.
$7.79
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 189.0% above fair value
Bear
$2.70
-65.4%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$2.70
-65.4%
ROTCE -37.8% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$2.70
-65.4%
ROTCE -43.5% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
-37.8%
14.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-37.8%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.87x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$12.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
With ROTCE of -37.8% vs. 14.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $8.98 tangible book, implying $2.70 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-37.8%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.50 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 62% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly