MARA
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.
$13.81
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 63.2% below fair value
You pay
$13.81
Bear
$26.23
Fair
$37.48
Bull
$48.72
Bear
$26.23
+89.9%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$37.48
+171.4%
ROTCE -37.8% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$48.72
+252.8%
ROTCE -43.5% → 0.30x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-37.8%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.52x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.75 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.48 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-37.8%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.75 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 184% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly