MANH
Manhattan Associates, Inc.
$168.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.0% above fair value
You pay
$168.17
Bear
$107.77
Fair
$166.48
Bull
$231.79
Bear
$107.77
-35.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$166.48
-1.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$231.79
+37.8%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
33.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.9%
vs 14.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $194.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $166.48 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 51% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions