MANH
Manhattan Associates, Inc.
$138.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.1% below fair value
You pay
$138.64
Bear
$108.28
Fair
$167.26
Bull
$232.88
Bear
$108.28
-21.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$167.26
+20.6%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$232.88
+68.0%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
27.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $197.80 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $167.26 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 51% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions