MANH
Manhattan Associates, Inc.
$201.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.0% above fair value
You pay
$201.82
Bear
$105.43
Fair
$165.36
Bull
$232.86
Bear
$105.43
-47.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$165.36
-18.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$232.86
+15.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
39.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.1%
vs 15.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$210.57
Divergence from AlphaVal
21%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $165.36 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 51% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions