MAA
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
$135.64
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.6% below fair value
You pay
$135.64
Bear
$200.05
Fair
$236.50
Bull
$272.94
Bear
$200.05
+47.5%
$9.19 FFO × 19x
Fair
$236.50
+74.4%
$9.19 FFO × 22x
Bull
$272.94
+101.2%
$9.19 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($9.19) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
14.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $142.36 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $236.50 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $443.38 (60% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $142.36 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify