MA
Mastercard Incorporated
$568.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 28.8% below fair value
You pay
$568.75
Bear
$450.59
Fair
$798.79
Bull
$1,223.27
Bear
$450.59
-20.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$798.79
+40.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,223.27
+115.1%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
29.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.3%
vs 18.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (65 analysts)
$670.94
Divergence from AlphaVal
19%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $798.79 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions