MA
Mastercard Incorporated
$622.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.9% below fair value
You pay
$622.03
Bear
$438.18
Fair
$776.99
Bull
$1,190.03
Bear
$438.18
-29.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$776.99
+24.9%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,190.03
+91.3%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
33.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.8%
vs 18.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (65 analysts)
$675.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $776.99 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions