LYV
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.
$183.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.8% above fair value
You pay
$183.34
Bear
$82.91
Fair
$171.65
Bull
$283.09
Bear
$82.91
-54.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$171.65
-6.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$283.09
+54.4%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
51.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.6%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $197.50 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $171.65 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 31% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions