LYV
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.
$170.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.8% below fair value
You pay
$170.51
Bear
$94.55
Fair
$184.84
Bull
$295.46
Bear
$94.55
-44.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$184.84
+8.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$295.46
+73.3%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
39.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.0%
vs 18.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$208.64
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $184.84 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 31% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions