LYV
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.
$165.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% above fair value
You pay
$165.55
Bear
$80.42
Fair
$165.48
Bull
$271.79
Bear
$80.42
-51.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$165.48
+-0.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$271.79
+64.2%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
47.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $183.88 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $165.48 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 31% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions