LYTS
LSI Industries Inc.
$19.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.0% below fair value
You pay
$19.68
Bear
$15.31
Fair
$30.29
Bull
$47.64
Bear
$15.31
-22.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$30.29
+53.9%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$47.64
+142.1%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
25.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.3%
vs 16.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$29.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $30.29 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions