LYTS
LSI Industries Inc.
$20.23
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 30.5% above fair value
You pay
$20.23
Bear
$13.56
Fair
$15.50
Bull
$17.43
Bear
$13.56
-33.0%
$0.67 × 20x P/E
Fair
$15.50
-23.4%
$0.67 × 23x P/E
Bull
$17.43
-13.8%
$0.67 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
23.1x
0.67$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$29.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Applying a 23x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.67, the base-case value is $15.50 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $29.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples