LYFT
Lyft, Inc.
$15.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.9% below fair value
You pay
$15.45
Bear
$32.46
Fair
$51.33
Bull
$72.81
Bear
$32.46
+110.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$51.33
+232.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$72.81
+371.3%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
6.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-6.5%
vs 16.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.92 from 59 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $17.92 (from 59 analysts). Our estimate is 287% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions