LYFT
Lyft, Inc.
$16.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 76.1% below fair value
You pay
$16.82
Bear
$44.60
Fair
$70.35
Bull
$99.59
Bear
$44.60
+165.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$70.35
+318.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$99.59
+492.1%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-5.4%
vs 16.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (60 analysts)
$18.07
Divergence from AlphaVal
289%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $70.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $18.07 (from 60 analysts). Our estimate is 289% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions