LYFT
Lyft, Inc.
$13.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.9% below fair value
You pay
$13.90
Bear
$31.87
Fair
$49.40
Bull
$69.06
Bear
$31.87
+129.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$49.40
+255.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$69.06
+396.8%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
5.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.36 from 59 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $18.36 (from 59 analysts). Our estimate is 260% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions