LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
$59.19
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 48.4% below fair value
You pay
$59.19
Bear
$91.71
Fair
$114.64
Bull
$137.57
Bear
$91.71
+54.9%
$8.83 × 12x P/E
Fair
$114.64
+93.7%
$8.83 × 15x P/E
Bull
$137.57
+132.4%
$8.83 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $73.09 from 40 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $114.64 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $73.09 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 81% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples