LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
$69.72
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.2% below fair value
You pay
$69.72
Bear
$93.20
Fair
$116.50
Bull
$139.81
Bear
$93.20
+33.7%
$8.83 × 12x P/E
Fair
$116.50
+67.1%
$8.83 × 15x P/E
Bull
$139.81
+100.5%
$8.83 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $79.30 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $116.50 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $79.30 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 67% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples