LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
$63.27
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.8% below fair value
You pay
$63.27
Bear
$86.98
Fair
$108.72
Bull
$130.46
Bear
$86.98
+37.5%
$7.25 × 12x P/E
Fair
$108.72
+71.8%
$7.25 × 15x P/E
Bull
$130.46
+106.2%
$7.25 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
7.25$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (40 analysts)
$68.56
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.25, the base-case value is $108.72 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $68.56 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 59% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples