LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
$57.51
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.0% below fair value
You pay
$57.51
Bear
$91.98
Fair
$114.97
Bull
$137.97
Bear
$91.98
+59.9%
$8.83 × 12x P/E
Fair
$114.97
+99.9%
$8.83 × 15x P/E
Bull
$137.97
+139.9%
$8.83 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $74.20 from 40 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $114.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $74.20 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples