LXU
LSB Industries, Inc.
$11.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 60.0% below fair value
You pay
$11.58
Bear
$18.92
Fair
$28.95
Bull
$39.28
Bear
$18.92
+63.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.95
+150.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$39.28
+239.2%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
12.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.0%
vs 11.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$14.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.95 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 13% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 100% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions