LXU
LSB Industries, Inc.
$10.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 64.9% below fair value
You pay
$10.15
Bear
$18.90
Fair
$28.92
Bull
$39.24
Bear
$18.90
+86.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.92
+185.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$39.24
+286.6%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
11.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.8%
vs 11.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$14.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
99%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.92 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 13% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 99% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 41% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions