LXP LXP Industrial Trust
$52.24
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 47.5% below fair value

You pay $52.24
Bear $81.37
Fair $99.45
Bull $117.53
Bear $81.37 +55.8% $5.25 FFO × 18x
Fair $99.45 +90.4% $5.25 FFO × 22x
Bull $117.53 +125.0% $5.25 FFO × 26x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.25) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 9.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $99.45 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $51.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 127% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify