LXP
LXP Industrial Trust
$52.24
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.5% below fair value
You pay
$52.24
Bear
$81.37
Fair
$99.45
Bull
$117.53
Bear
$81.37
+55.8%
$5.25 FFO × 18x
Fair
$99.45
+90.4%
$5.25 FFO × 22x
Bull
$117.53
+125.0%
$5.25 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.25) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
9.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $99.45 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $51.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 127% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify