LXP
LXP Industrial Trust
$61.00
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.8% below fair value
You pay
$61.00
Bear
$95.63
Fair
$116.88
Bull
$138.14
Bear
$95.63
+56.8%
$5.31 FFO × 18x
Fair
$116.88
+91.6%
$5.31 FFO × 22x
Bull
$138.14
+126.5%
$5.31 FFO × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
22.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.31) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
11.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$58.73
Divergence from AlphaVal
99%
Summary
At $5.31 FFO/share with a 22x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $116.88 per share. Dividend yield: 3.7%.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.73 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 99% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify