LXFR
Luxfer Holdings PLC
$16.23
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 50.3% above fair value
You pay
$16.23
Bear
$8.64
Fair
$10.80
Bull
$12.96
Bear
$8.64
-46.8%
$0.72 × 12x P/E
Fair
$10.80
-33.5%
$0.72 × 15x P/E
Bull
$12.96
-20.1%
$0.72 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.5x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.72, the base-case value is $10.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $7.50.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 157%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 186% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.50 (below our primary estimate by 31%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples