LXFR Luxfer Holdings PLC
$17.32
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 67.4% above fair value

You pay $17.32
Bear $8.28
Fair $10.35
Bull $12.42
Bear $8.28 -52.2% $0.69 × 12x P/E
Fair $10.35 -40.3% $0.69 × 15x P/E
Bull $12.42 -28.3% $0.69 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.69$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.1x

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.69, the base-case value is $10.35 per share. DDM cross-check: $7.50.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 146%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 186% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.50 (below our primary estimate by 28%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples