LW
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
$47.87
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.9% below fair value
You pay
$47.87
Bear
$39.79
Fair
$48.31
Bull
$56.84
Bear
$39.79
-16.9%
$2.84 × 14x P/E
Fair
$48.31
+0.9%
$2.84 × 17x P/E
Bull
$56.84
+18.7%
$2.84 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
2.84$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$53.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.84, the base-case value is $48.31 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 37%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples