LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
$49.90
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 2.0% above fair value

You pay $49.90
Bear $40.28
Fair $48.90
Bull $57.53
Bear $40.28 -19.3% $2.84 × 14x P/E
Fair $48.90 -2.0% $2.84 × 17x P/E
Bull $57.53 +15.3% $2.84 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.67 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.90 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 37%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples