LW
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
$45.55
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.6% below fair value
You pay
$45.55
Bear
$38.51
Fair
$46.76
Bull
$55.00
Bear
$38.51
-15.5%
$2.67 × 14x P/E
Fair
$46.76
+2.6%
$2.67 × 17x P/E
Bull
$55.00
+20.8%
$2.67 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.76 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples