LUMN
Lumen Technologies, Inc.
$4.65
Leveraged Infrastructure
80%
EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
EBITDA $1B × 6.0x − $17B debt
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
EBITDA $1B × 7.0x − $17B debt
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
EBITDA $1B × 8.0x − $17B debt
Adjust Assumptions
7.0x
Key Value Driver
EV/EBITDA multiple (7.0x) vs. 12.7× leverage
Implied Market Multiple
16.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$8.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
At 7.0x EV/EBITDA on $1B EBITDA, enterprise value is $9B. After subtracting $17B net debt, equity value is $0.00 per share.
Warnings
Debt is 12.7x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.
Operating profit only covers interest payments 1.0 times over. If the company needs to refinance at higher rates, it could struggle to service its debt.
Only 28% of operating profit turns into actual cash for shareholders. Big investments and interest payments consume most of what the business earns.
We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 61% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
- EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
- Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable