LULU
Lululemon Athletica Inc.
$97.10
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.2% below fair value
You pay
$97.10
Bear
$97.34
Fair
$97.34
Bull
$103.91
Bear
$97.34
+0.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$97.34
+0.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$103.91
+7.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
12.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.0%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (71 analysts)
$97.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
0%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $97.34 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions