LTH
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
$40.79
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.2% above fair value
You pay
$40.79
Bear
$29.88
Fair
$37.35
Bull
$44.82
Bear
$29.88
-26.7%
$1.66 × 18x P/E
Fair
$37.35
-8.4%
$1.66 × 22x P/E
Bull
$44.82
+9.9%
$1.66 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
1.66$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$55.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.66, the base-case value is $37.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.17 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples