LRN
Stride, Inc.
$85.10
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.5% below fair value
You pay
$85.10
Bear
$115.85
Fair
$140.67
Bull
$165.49
Bear
$115.85
+36.1%
$7.14 × 16x P/E
Fair
$140.67
+65.3%
$7.14 × 20x P/E
Bull
$165.49
+94.5%
$7.14 × 23x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
19.7x
7.14$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$107.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.14, the base-case value is $140.67 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $107.80 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples