LRN
Stride, Inc.
$82.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.6% below fair value
You pay
$82.91
Bear
$121.77
Fair
$155.24
Bull
$187.11
Bear
$121.77
+46.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$155.24
+87.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$187.11
+125.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
9.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.1%
vs 8.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $155.24 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $109.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 56% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions