LQDT
Liquidity Services, Inc.
$43.71
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 109.3% above fair value
You pay
$43.71
Bear
$18.27
Fair
$20.88
Bull
$23.49
Bear
$18.27
-58.2%
$0.87 × 21x P/E
Fair
$20.88
-52.2%
$0.87 × 24x P/E
Bull
$23.49
-46.3%
$0.87 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
24.0x
0.87$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
50.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Applying a 24x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.87, the base-case value is $20.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples