LPX
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
$70.51
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.4% below fair value
You pay
$70.51
Bear
$72.71
Fair
$90.89
Bull
$109.06
Bear
$72.71
+3.1%
$5.89 × 12x P/E
Fair
$90.89
+28.9%
$5.89 × 15x P/E
Bull
$109.06
+54.7%
$5.89 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $98.50 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.89 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 183%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $437.43 (above our primary estimate by 395%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples