LPX
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
$66.81
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.4% below fair value
You pay
$66.81
Bear
$70.68
Fair
$88.35
Bull
$106.02
Bear
$70.68
+5.8%
$5.89 × 12x P/E
Fair
$88.35
+32.2%
$5.89 × 15x P/E
Bull
$106.02
+58.7%
$5.89 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
5.89$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$91.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.89, the base-case value is $88.35 per share. DDM cross-check: $130.70.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 183%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $130.70 (above our primary estimate by 48%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples