LOVE The Lovesac Company
$16.69
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 50.0% below fair value

You pay $16.69
Bear $29.23
Fair $33.40
Bull $37.58
Bear $29.23 +75.1% $1.45 × 20x P/E
Fair $33.40 +100.1% $1.45 × 23x P/E
Bull $37.58 +125.2% $1.45 × 26x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

23.0x
1.45$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.5x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (11 analysts) $21.33
Divergence from AlphaVal 57%

Summary

Applying a 23x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.45, the base-case value is $33.40 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 418%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.33 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 57% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples