LOPE
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
$157.62
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.3% above fair value
You pay
$157.62
Bear
$107.94
Fair
$131.07
Bull
$154.20
Bear
$107.94
-31.5%
$7.71 × 14x P/E
Fair
$131.07
-16.8%
$7.71 × 17x P/E
Bull
$154.20
-2.2%
$7.71 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
7.71$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$160.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.71, the base-case value is $131.07 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples