LOPE
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
$156.70
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.8% above fair value
You pay
$156.70
Bear
$123.13
Fair
$149.52
Bull
$175.90
Bear
$123.13
-21.4%
$8.15 × 14x P/E
Fair
$149.52
-4.6%
$8.15 × 17x P/E
Bull
$175.90
+12.3%
$8.15 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $182.33 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $149.52 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples