LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
$15.06
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.6% below fair value
You pay
$15.06
Bear
$12.60
Fair
$15.30
Bull
$18.00
Bear
$12.60
-16.3%
$0.90 × 14x P/E
Fair
$15.30
+1.6%
$0.90 × 17x P/E
Bull
$18.00
+19.5%
$0.90 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
0.9$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$19.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.90, the base-case value is $15.30 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples