LOAR
Loar Holdings Inc.
$61.62
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 76.9% above fair value
You pay
$61.62
Bear
$18.54
Fair
$34.83
Bull
$53.66
Bear
$18.54
-69.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$34.83
-43.5%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$53.66
-12.9%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
57.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.1%
vs 16.5% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $34.83 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions