LOAR
Loar Holdings Inc.
$70.89
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 170.5% above fair value
You pay
$70.89
Bear
$13.29
Fair
$26.21
Bull
$41.14
Bear
$13.29
-81.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$26.21
-63.0%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$41.14
-42.0%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
82.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
27.9%
vs 16.5% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.21 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions