LNW
Light & Wonder, Inc.
$99.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 58.5% below fair value
You pay
$99.75
Bear
$158.73
Fair
$240.10
Bull
$328.68
Bear
$158.73
+59.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$240.10
+140.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$328.68
+229.5%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
10.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.0%
vs 14.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$128.11
Divergence from AlphaVal
87%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $240.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $128.11 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 87% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions