LNT
Alliant Energy Corporation
$65.85
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.1% above fair value
You pay
$65.85
Bear
$43.96
Fair
$50.24
Bull
$56.52
Bear
$43.96
-33.2%
$3.14 × 14x P/E
Fair
$50.24
-23.7%
$3.14 × 16x P/E
Bull
$56.52
-14.2%
$3.14 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.14$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$77.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.14, the base-case value is $50.24 per share. DDM cross-check: $65.14.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $65.14 (above our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $77.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples