LNT
Alliant Energy Corporation
$75.75
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.3% above fair value
You pay
$75.75
Bear
$49.73
Fair
$56.83
Bull
$63.93
Bear
$49.73
-34.4%
$3.14 × 14x P/E
Fair
$56.83
-25.0%
$3.14 × 16x P/E
Bull
$63.93
-15.6%
$3.14 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.60 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.83 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $65.05 (above our primary estimate by 29%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $76.60 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples