LNT
Alliant Energy Corporation
$76.40
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.7% above fair value
You pay
$76.40
Bear
$49.64
Fair
$56.73
Bull
$63.82
Bear
$49.64
-35.0%
$3.14 × 14x P/E
Fair
$56.73
-25.7%
$3.14 × 16x P/E
Bull
$63.82
-16.5%
$3.14 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.20 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.73 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $65.05 (above our primary estimate by 29%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $76.20 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples