LNN
Lindsay Corporation
$113.35
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.4% below fair value
You pay
$113.35
Bear
$120.20
Fair
$144.24
Bull
$168.28
Bear
$120.20
+6.0%
$6.01 × 20x
Fair
$144.24
+27.3%
$6.01 × 24x
Bull
$168.28
+48.5%
$6.01 × 28x
Adjust Assumptions
24.0x
6.01$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($6.01)
Implied Market Multiple
18.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$121.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
19%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $6.01 at a 24x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $144.24 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.7x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 2.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing