LNG
Cheniere Energy, Inc.
$283.76
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.8% below fair value
You pay
$283.76
Bear
$403.92
Fair
$504.90
Bull
$605.87
Bear
$403.92
+42.3%
$24.13 × 17x P/E
Fair
$504.90
+77.9%
$24.13 × 21x P/E
Bull
$605.87
+113.5%
$24.13 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
20.9x
24.13$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$307.44
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $24.13, the base-case value is $504.90 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $307.44 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples