LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc.
$240.85
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 45.6% below fair value

You pay $240.85
Bear $354.31
Fair $442.89
Bull $531.46
Bear $354.31 +47.1% $24.13 × 17x P/E
Fair $442.89 +83.9% $24.13 × 21x P/E
Bull $531.46 +120.7% $24.13 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $256.86 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $442.89 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $256.86 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples