LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc.
$264.12
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 40.9% below fair value

You pay $264.12
Bear $357.43
Fair $446.78
Bull $536.13
Bear $357.43 +35.3% $24.13 × 17x P/E
Fair $446.78 +69.2% $24.13 × 21x P/E
Bull $536.13 +103.0% $24.13 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $272.43 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $446.78 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $272.43 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 85% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples