LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1,166.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 62.9% above fair value
You pay
$1,166.51
Bear
$355.94
Fair
$715.87
Bull
$1,184.60
Bear
$355.94
-69.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$715.87
-38.6%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,184.60
+1.6%
28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
21.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
82.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
27.9%
vs 21.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$1345.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $715.87 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1345.80 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions