LKFN
Lakeland Financial Corporation
$62.68
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.1% below fair value
You pay
$62.68
Bear
$44.08
Fair
$68.20
Bull
$82.67
Bear
$44.08
-29.7%
ROTCE 10.2% → 1.46x TBV
Fair
$68.20
+8.8%
ROTCE 13.6% → 2.26x TBV
Bull
$82.67
+31.9%
ROTCE 15.7% → 2.74x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.06x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $66.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.20 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $96.00 (40% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly