LKFN
Lakeland Financial Corporation
$59.98
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.6% below fair value
You pay
$59.98
Bear
$45.37
Fair
$70.20
Bull
$85.10
Bear
$45.37
-24.4%
ROTCE 10.2% → 1.49x TBV
Fair
$70.20
+17.0%
ROTCE 13.6% → 2.31x TBV
Bull
$85.10
+41.9%
ROTCE 15.7% → 2.80x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
8.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.97x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$68.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.6% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.31x on $30.40 tangible book, implying $70.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $99.86.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $99.86 (42% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly