LKFN
Lakeland Financial Corporation
$58.39
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.8% below fair value
You pay
$58.39
Bear
$42.30
Fair
$65.45
Bull
$79.34
Bear
$42.30
-27.6%
ROTCE 10.2% → 1.39x TBV
Fair
$65.45
+12.1%
ROTCE 13.6% → 2.15x TBV
Bull
$79.34
+35.9%
ROTCE 15.7% → 2.60x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
8.5%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.92x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$68.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
5%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.6% vs. 8.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.15x on $30.47 tangible book, implying $65.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $70.63.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly