LIVN
LivaNova PLC
$78.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.7% above fair value
You pay
$78.44
Bear
$52.88
Fair
$66.63
Bull
$79.52
Bear
$52.88
-32.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$66.63
-15.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$79.52
+1.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
22.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 8.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$93.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $66.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $93.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions