LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
$960.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1270.9% above fair value
You pay
$960.70
Bear
$52.60
Fair
$70.08
Bull
$88.42
Bear
$52.60
-94.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$70.08
-92.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$88.42
-90.8%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
388.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
52.2%
vs 12.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$1092.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
94%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $70.08 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1092.17 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions