LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
$893.93
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 223.2% above fair value
You pay
$893.93
Bear
$221.28
Fair
$276.61
Bull
$331.93
Bear
$221.28
-75.2%
$2.68 × 12x P/E
Fair
$276.61
-69.1%
$2.68 × 15x P/E
Bull
$331.93
-62.9%
$2.68 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
333.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $985.82 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $276.61 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 624%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $985.82 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 96% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples