LION
Lionsgate Studios Corp.
$13.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 357.5% above fair value
You pay
$13.88
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$3.03
Bull
$0.40
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$3.03
-78.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$0.40
-97.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
38.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.8%
vs 6.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.17 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.03 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.17 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions