LION
Lionsgate Studios Corp.
$10.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.5% above fair value
You pay
$10.70
Bear
$6.12
Fair
$10.14
Bull
$13.75
Bear
$6.12
-42.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$10.14
-5.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$13.75
+28.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.9%
vs 6.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$16.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $10.14 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.80 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions