LION
Lionsgate Studios Corp.
$14.95
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.5% below fair value
You pay
$14.95
Bear
$16.96
Fair
$21.20
Bull
$25.44
Bear
$16.96
+13.4%
$1.53 × 12x P/E
Fair
$21.20
+41.8%
$1.53 × 15x P/E
Bull
$25.44
+70.2%
$1.53 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.20 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $15.64 (below our primary estimate by 32%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples