LINC
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation
$23.59
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 77.4% above fair value
You pay
$23.59
Bear
$10.95
Fair
$13.30
Bull
$15.65
Bear
$10.95
-53.6%
$0.65 × 17x P/E
Fair
$13.30
-43.6%
$0.65 × 20x P/E
Bull
$15.65
-33.7%
$0.65 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
20.5x
0.65$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
36.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.65, the base-case value is $13.30 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples