LINC
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation
$54.24
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 131.5% above fair value
You pay
$54.24
Bear
$19.29
Fair
$23.43
Bull
$27.56
Bear
$19.29
-64.4%
$0.65 × 17x P/E
Fair
$23.43
-56.8%
$0.65 × 20x P/E
Bull
$27.56
-49.2%
$0.65 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
83.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.80 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.43 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $53.80 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples