LIN
Linde plc
$529.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 82.8% above fair value
You pay
$529.79
Bear
$207.87
Fair
$289.76
Bull
$367.64
Bear
$207.87
-60.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$289.76
-45.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$367.64
-30.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
45.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.0%
vs 8.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $557.50 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $289.76 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $557.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions