LIN
Linde plc
$490.33
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 136.2% above fair value
You pay
$490.33
Bear
$149.29
Fair
$207.57
Bull
$263.00
Bear
$149.29
-69.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$207.57
-57.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$263.00
-46.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
41.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.7%
vs 8.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$566.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $207.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $566.25 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions