LIN
Linde plc
$483.73
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 105.1% above fair value
You pay
$483.73
Bear
$164.68
Fair
$235.84
Bull
$305.27
Bear
$164.68
-66.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$235.84
-51.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$305.27
-36.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
39.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.1%
vs 9.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$557.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $235.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $557.10 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions