LIN
Linde plc
$517.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 78.4% above fair value
You pay
$517.58
Bear
$208.17
Fair
$290.18
Bull
$368.16
Bear
$208.17
-59.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$290.18
-43.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$368.16
-28.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
44.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $559.14 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $290.18 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $559.14 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions