LIF
Life360, Inc.
$54.57
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 79.7% above fair value
You pay
$54.57
Bear
$19.22
Fair
$30.37
Bull
$43.54
Bear
$19.22
-64.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$30.37
-44.3%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$43.54
-20.2%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
93.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
29.6%
vs 17.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $59.03 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.37 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 37% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $59.03 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions