LIF
Life360, Inc.
$43.37
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 87.9% above fair value
You pay
$43.37
Bear
$14.61
Fair
$23.08
Bull
$33.08
Bear
$14.61
-66.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$23.08
-46.8%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$33.08
-23.7%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
74.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.4%
vs 17.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$56.23
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $23.08 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 37% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.23 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions