LI
Li Auto Inc.
$12.37
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 724.4% above fair value
You pay
$12.37
Bear
$1.11
Fair
$1.50
Bull
$1.90
Bear
$1.11
-91.1%
$0.16 × 7x
Fair
$1.50
-87.9%
$0.16 × 10x
Bull
$1.90
-84.7%
$0.16 × 12x
Adjust Assumptions
9.5x
0.16$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.16)
Implied Market Multiple
78.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$16.16
Divergence from AlphaVal
91%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.16 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $1.50 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.2x.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.16 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1493 USD per CNY.
This stock is 54% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing