LI
Li Auto Inc.
$15.89
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 170.9% above fair value
You pay
$15.89
Bear
$3.93
Fair
$5.87
Bull
$7.80
Bear
$3.93
-75.3%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$5.87
-63.1%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$7.80
-50.9%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
103.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.01 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.87 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $20.01 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1474 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case