LI
Li Auto Inc.
$11.50
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 663.6% above fair value
You pay
$11.50
Bear
$1.11
Fair
$1.51
Bull
$1.90
Bear
$1.11
-90.4%
$0.16 × 7x
Fair
$1.51
-86.9%
$0.16 × 10x
Bull
$1.90
-83.5%
$0.16 × 12x
Adjust Assumptions
9.5x
0.16$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.16)
Implied Market Multiple
72.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$15.18
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.16 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $1.51 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.1x.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.18 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1498 USD per CNY.
This stock is 49% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing