LHX
L3Harris Technologies, Inc.
$311.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.0% above fair value
You pay
$311.98
Bear
$199.17
Fair
$286.31
Bull
$371.65
Bear
$199.17
-36.2%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$286.31
-8.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$371.65
+19.1%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
25.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $352.25 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $286.31 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $352.25 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions