LFUS
Littelfuse, Inc.
$460.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 51.7% above fair value
You pay
$460.48
Bear
$218.98
Fair
$303.59
Bull
$387.65
Bear
$218.98
-52.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$303.59
-34.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$387.65
-15.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
32.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $435.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $303.59 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $435.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions