LFUS
Littelfuse, Inc.
$425.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$518.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $518.33 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions