LFUS
Littelfuse, Inc.
$415.16
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.6% above fair value
You pay
$415.16
Bear
$215.78
Fair
$299.55
Bull
$382.78
Bear
$215.78
-48.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$299.55
-27.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$382.78
-7.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
31.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.0%
vs 10.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $478.75 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $299.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $478.75 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions