LFST
LifeStance Health Group, Inc.
$12.42
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 61.3% above fair value
You pay
$12.42
Bear
$4.28
Fair
$7.70
Bull
$11.99
Bear
$4.28
-65.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.70
-38.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$11.99
-3.5%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
74.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.5%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$14.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
46%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.70 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 773% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.14 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions