LFST
LifeStance Health Group, Inc.
$7.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.4% above fair value
You pay
$7.39
Bear
$3.99
Fair
$7.15
Bull
$11.12
Bear
$3.99
-46.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.15
-3.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$11.12
+50.5%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
52.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.70 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.15 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 773% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $9.70 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions