LFST
LifeStance Health Group, Inc.
$10.71
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.5% above fair value
You pay
$10.71
Bear
$4.05
Fair
$7.26
Bull
$11.29
Bear
$4.05
-62.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.26
-32.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$11.29
+5.5%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
75.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.8%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.25 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.26 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 773% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.25 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions