LEN-B
Lennar Corporation
$78.27
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.5% below fair value
You pay
$78.27
Bear
$199.78
Fair
$256.86
Bull
$313.94
Bear
$199.78
+155.2%
$14.27 × 14x
Fair
$256.86
+228.2%
$14.27 × 18x
Bull
$313.94
+301.1%
$14.27 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
14.27$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($14.27)
Implied Market Multiple
5.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$87.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
193%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $14.27 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $256.86 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.1x.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $87.67 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 193% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing