LECO
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.
$276.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.3% above fair value
You pay
$276.44
Bear
$163.76
Fair
$241.91
Bull
$322.66
Bear
$163.76
-40.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$241.91
-12.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$322.66
+16.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
28.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.7%
vs 12.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$303.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $241.91 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions