LEA
Lear Corporation
$118.03
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.3% below fair value
You pay
$118.03
Bear
$179.30
Fair
$211.90
Bull
$244.50
Bear
$179.30
+51.9%
$8.15 × 22x P/E
Fair
$211.90
+79.5%
$8.15 × 26x P/E
Bull
$244.50
+107.2%
$8.15 × 30x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
26.0x
8.15$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$132.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Summary
Applying a 26x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.15, the base-case value is $211.90 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $132.75 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples