LDOS
Leidos Holdings, Inc.
$116.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.3% below fair value
You pay
$116.69
Bear
$152.62
Fair
$195.39
Bull
$234.11
Bear
$152.62
+30.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$195.39
+67.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$234.11
+100.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
11.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
1.2%
vs 6.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$150.88
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $195.39 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $150.88 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions