LBTYK
Liberty Global plc
$11.79
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 88.5% below fair value
You pay
$11.79
Bear
$81.71
Fair
$102.14
Bull
$122.57
Bear
$81.71
+593.1%
$7.44 × 14x P/E
Fair
$102.14
+766.4%
$7.44 × 18x P/E
Bull
$122.57
+939.6%
$7.44 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
1.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.67 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.14 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $12.67 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 942% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples