LBTYA Liberty Global plc
$10.62
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 67.6% below fair value

You pay $10.62
Bear $26.24
Fair $32.80
Bull $39.36
Bear $26.24 +147.1% $1.85 × 14x P/E
Fair $32.80 +208.9% $1.85 × 18x P/E
Bull $39.36 +270.7% $1.85 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.7x
1.85$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 5.7x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (29 analysts) $13.30
Divergence from AlphaVal 147%

Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.85, the base-case value is $32.80 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $13.30 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 147% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples