LBTYA Liberty Global plc
$12.18
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 88.2% below fair value

You pay $12.18
Bear $82.24
Fair $102.80
Bull $123.36
Bear $82.24 +575.2% $7.44 × 14x P/E
Fair $102.80 +744.0% $7.44 × 18x P/E
Bull $123.36 +912.8% $7.44 × 21x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 1.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.30 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.80 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $15.30 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 763% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples