LBTYA
Liberty Global plc
$7.98
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 75.7% below fair value
You pay
$7.98
Bear
$26.24
Fair
$32.80
Bull
$39.36
Bear
$26.24
+228.9%
$1.85 × 14x P/E
Fair
$32.80
+311.1%
$1.85 × 18x P/E
Bull
$39.36
+393.3%
$1.85 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.7x
1.85$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
4.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$13.48
Divergence from AlphaVal
143%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.85, the base-case value is $32.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $13.48 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 143% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 41% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples