LBTYA Liberty Global plc
$10.41
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 89.9% below fair value

You pay $10.41
Bear $82.19
Fair $102.74
Bull $123.28
Bear $82.19 +689.5% $7.44 × 14x P/E
Fair $102.74 +886.9% $7.44 × 18x P/E
Bull $123.28 +1084.3% $7.44 × 21x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 1.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.05 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.74 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $15.05 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 777% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples