LBTYA
Liberty Global plc
$12.18
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 88.2% below fair value
You pay
$12.18
Bear
$82.24
Fair
$102.80
Bull
$123.36
Bear
$82.24
+575.2%
$7.44 × 14x P/E
Fair
$102.80
+744.0%
$7.44 × 18x P/E
Bull
$123.36
+912.8%
$7.44 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
1.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.30 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.30 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 763% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples