LBRT
Liberty Energy Inc.
$25.23
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 106.1% above fair value
You pay
$25.23
Bear
$1.91
Fair
$12.24
Bull
$25.23
Bear
$1.91
-92.4%
FCF $97M × 10x
Fair
$12.24
-51.5%
FCF $125M × 13x
Bull
$25.23
+-0.0%
FCF $153M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
39.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.71 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.24 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -97%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.71 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential