LBRT
Liberty Energy Inc.
$16.60
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 131.1% above fair value
You pay
$16.60
Bear
$2.19
Fair
$7.18
Bull
$13.46
Bear
$2.19
-86.8%
FCF $120M × 10x
Fair
$7.18
-56.7%
FCF $155M × 13x
Bull
$13.46
-18.9%
FCF $190M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$27.88
Divergence from AlphaVal
74%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $7.18 per share. Range: $2.19 (bear) to $13.46 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($5.18) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -87%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.88 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential