LB
LandBridge Company LLC
$78.63
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 131.5% above fair value
You pay
$78.63
Bear
$20.76
Fair
$33.97
Bull
$50.56
Bear
$20.76
-73.6%
FCF $45M × 10x
Fair
$33.97
-56.8%
FCF $58M × 13x
Bull
$50.56
-35.7%
FCF $72M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
103.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $78.00 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.97 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -92%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.00 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential