LAUR
Laureate Education, Inc.
$36.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.4% below fair value
You pay
$36.45
Bear
$25.27
Fair
$36.61
Bull
$47.93
Bear
$25.27
-30.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$36.61
+0.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$47.93
+31.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
22.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.8%
vs 10.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.61 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions