LAMR
Lamar Advertising Company
$143.24
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.7% below fair value
You pay
$143.24
Bear
$257.46
Fair
$315.97
Bull
$374.49
Bear
$257.46
+79.7%
$9.00 FFO × 29x
Fair
$315.97
+120.6%
$9.00 FFO × 35x
Bull
$374.49
+161.4%
$9.00 FFO × 42x
Adjust Assumptions
35.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($9.00) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
15.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$160.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
At $9.00 FFO/share with a 35x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $315.97 per share. Dividend yield: 4.6%. DDM cross-check: $330.43.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $160.50 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify