KWR
Quaker Chemical Corporation
$141.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 166.0% above fair value
You pay
$141.84
Bear
$29.12
Fair
$53.31
Bull
$74.53
Bear
$29.12
-79.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$53.31
-62.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$74.53
-47.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
39.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $178.33 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.31 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $178.33 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions