KWR
Quaker Houghton
$158.11
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1481.1% above fair value
You pay
$158.11
Bear
$1.81
Fair
$10.00
Bull
$17.19
Bear
$1.81
-98.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$10.00
-93.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$17.19
-89.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
53.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.1%
vs 5.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$182.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
95%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $10.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $182.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 95% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions